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International oil traders have been anxiously watching for Israel's expected military response to Iran's latest rocket attack, with prices rising and dipping according to the latest guesses on whether Israel will target Iran's oil infrastructure and how Tehran might respond.
Global prices rose by about 11% immediately after Iran launched about 200 missiles at Israel last week but have drifted back down because of the lack of any actual market disruptions and renewed concern about weak demand from China.
Oil prices dropped by over 4% early Tuesday, bringing the U.S. benchmark below $75 per barrel, while Brent crude was around $78 per barrel, down from more than $80 a day earlier.
Joost R. Hiltermann, program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, told VOA that an attack to Iran's export facilities would likely have a more significant impact on the oil market than damage to its refining facilities.
"Iran's exports are almost entirely bound for China, and if its supplies are removed from the market, other producers could step in to compensate. However, if Tehran or its nonstate allies retaliate against shipping or infrastructure elsewhere in the region, the situation could escalate rapidly," he said.
Muhammad Sharif Ebrahim, head of the International Relations Department at Catholic University in Erbil, emphasized the crucial role of Iran's oil infrastructure. According to OPEC, Iran produced 3.2 million barrels of oil per day in August, representing approximately 3% of the global supply.
"Immediate effects would include short-term spikes in oil prices and increased market volatility," Ebrahim said. "Long-term consequences could involve supply chain disruptions, regional instability and retaliatory actions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the global oil supply is transported."
Ebrahim also highlighted Iran's strong economic ties with India and China, noting that both Asian nations share similar relations with Israel in sectors such as investment and technology.
"These countries are actively working to prevent escalation between the two sides. In the short term, they can utilize their strategic petroleum reserves to meet energy needs, and in the long term, they can offset any shortages by turning to other producers, especially Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq," he said.
Ebrahim pointed out that the United States has recently increased its own oil exports. He said any market gap created by disruptions could present an opportunity for the U.S. to leverage its significant oil production capacity.
He noted that Russia could also capitalize on the situation. "With its substantial reserves and production capacity, which had been previously restricted by EU and U.S. sanctions since 2022, Russia is in a prime position to fill any shortages from Iran, especially due to its strong ties with both China and India," he said.
"Russia already sells its oil below the global market price because of these sanctions, allowing it to compensate for any shortfall in Iranian supply."
Beston H. Arif, an assistant professor at the College of Political Sciences at the University of Sulaimani in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, said Iran plays a pivotal role in shaping oil prices, despite American sanctions on its oil sector.
With approximately 9.5% of the world's oil reserves, Iran manages to keep oil prices relatively low by selling at discounted rates to countries such as China, thereby indirectly affecting global market dynamics, he told VOA.
If Israel does target Iran's oil industry, Arif said, it would likely lead to a surge in global energy prices. He noted that Iraqi oil exports could face disruptions due to potential Israeli strikes against Iranian proxy groups there and their subsequent reactions.
"Should Israel exercise restraint in its actions, oil prices are likely to remain stable," Arif said. "However, if the response is more severe, the market could experience greater disruption."
Zmkan Ali Saleem, a research fellow at the Institution for Regional and International Studies at the American University of Iraq, said Iran could respond to an attack on its gas and oil infrastructure by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could drastically impact the global oil supply.
Saleem said that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would likely feel the repercussions of heightened conflict in the Gulf region. He suggested that as a swing state, Saudi Arabia might work to stabilize the oil market under U.S. influence, aiming to mitigate the potential fallout from escalated tensions.