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TOKYO —U.S. naval dominance, unchallenged for decades, is now coming under strain as China's state-backed shipbuilding industry rapidly expands, while the U.S. Navy faces severe maintenance delays.
The impact is being felt across the Navy. While some ships and submarines are stuck waiting for repairs at overcrowded U.S. shipyards, others are forced into extended deployments, pushing crews and vessels to their limits.
Analysts say the delays undermine the U.S. ability to project strength and deter conflict, especially in key areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, where China is upsetting the status quo.
To help fix the problem, the U.S. is turning to its allies - particularly Japan, one of the world's largest shipbuilders. Earlier this year, U.S. and Japanese officials began negotiating a plan to expand Japan's role in performing major repairs on U.S. Navy vessels at its shipyards.
Rahm Emanuel, U.S. ambassador to Japan, sees the proposal as crucial for keeping U.S. ships in the region. "The Indo-Pacific is an away game for us...but with allies, it's closer to a home game," Emanuel told VOA.
The discussions underscore Japan's broader shift toward a more active regional security role, as it steps away from decades of pacifism. It's also part of a strategy by the U.S. to encourage its Asian allies to take on greater security responsibilities in the face of China's rising influence.
However, the proposal faces major hurdles. In the U.S., legal changes would be needed to allow foreign shipyards to overhaul Navy vessels. In Japan, there are concerns about becoming a bigger target for China.
Severe backlog
But for the U.S. Navy, the challenge is severe.
According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), about a third of the U.S. attack submarine fleet is currently out of service, either undergoing maintenance or awaiting repairs.
Fewer than 40% of the Navy's scheduled ship repairs are completed on time, according to recent congressional testimony. By some estimates, the Navy is 20 years behind in maintenance work.
A wide range of key shipbuilding projects are also running years behind schedule - an "extraordinary situation" in the post-World War II history of the Navy, according to CRS.
Emanuel argues this reflects a broader decline in the U.S. defense industrial base, which has been hollowed out since the 1990s and is "not ready" to meet U.S. security needs.
"Every weapon that we've agreed to here, I've had to renegotiate the contract once it's signed because we can't meet the budget at the timeline," Emanuel said. "It's really bad planning [and] really bad preparation."
According to a recent CRS report, the Navy's repair backlog is caused by a shortage of skilled workers and limited capacity at the four U.S. government-run naval shipyards.
China challenge
Meanwhile, China boasts 20 large shipyards, which it is using to quickly build up what is already the world's largest navy in terms of overall vessels.
According to a recent unclassified slide released by U.S. naval intelligence, China's shipbuilding capacity is over 200 times that of the United States, fueled by generous government subsidies.
Even though the U.S. still maintains significant naval advantages - such as 11 aircraft carriers compared to China's three and an unrivaled network of global alliances - some observers believe that China's ability to dwarf U.S. shipbuilding represents a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power.
"We've let that underlying capacity atrophy to the point where we're behind the eight ball at the moment, and that's a big, thorny problem," said Sam Byers, the senior national security advisor at the Washington D.C.-based Center for Maritime Strategy.
Benefits and drawbacks
In Emanuel's estimation, the U.S.-Japan ship repair proposal could alleviate the U.S. Navy's maintenance backlog, freeing U.S. shipyards to focus on meeting their construction goals. It would also allow U.S. ships to stay for longer in Asia, he said.
But not everyone agrees.
Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, argues that the problem isn't a lack of shipyard capacity but rather their inconsistent use, due to fluctuating demand from the Navy. He suggests that repairing more ships overseas could help manage these fluctuations and minimize disruptions for Japan-based crews.
"And repair yards in Japan could gain experience working on U.S. ships, which could be beneficial in a conflict," he added.
However, he cautioned that shifting work overseas wouldn't solve the underlying issues of funding and planning that contribute to the Navy's repair delays.
"Of course, the Japanese ship repair yards may do a better job or be more efficient than their American counterparts. If that is the argument, then U.S. officials should make that clear," Clark said.
Others in the shipbuilding industry have argued against what they see as outsourcing U.S. Navy shipbuilding and repairs, a step they characterize as "kicking American shipyard workers to the curb."
Japan risks
There are also barriers in Japan, where public opinion doesn't always align with the government's more assertive security stance.
While certain segments of the Japanese public appear more supportive of increased military involvement after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it's unclear how deep or lasting this shift is, warned Misato Matsuoka, an associate professor at Teikyo University.
"There is this gap of understanding when it comes to what is going on in the security area," Matsuoka said. "I don't see a lot of Japanese who are even aware of these changes."
Matsuoka also warned that the U.S.-Japan ship repair proposal could eventually be seen as one of many factors escalating U.S.-China tensions, potentially impacting Japan negatively.
"All the things Japan is doing makes it more important within the U.S. alliance but that also increases the risk of something happening to Japanese territory," said Robert Ward, Japan Chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
While Japan deepens ties with the U.S., it is careful not to provoke China, Ward noted. Nonetheless, Japan, like many countries, remains wary of what it sees as China's destabilizing behavior in the region.
"This isn't happening in a vacuum," Ward said, referring to Japan's changing security posture. "There are very good reasons why all this is happening."
When it comes to the U.S.-Japan ship repair deal, the choices are also complex for the United States, Emanuel acknowledged. However, he argued, sometimes "you've got to choose between what's bad and what's worse."