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BANGKOK —Northern Thailand's worst floods in years are causing significant damage, and experts say this could be the first real test for the country's new prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
The floods, caused by seasonal monsoon rain in August, have killed at least 22 people, injured others and damaged upwards of 30,000 homes across more than a dozen provinces, authorities said on August 26.
The bad weather in Thailand continues, with Typhoon Yagi forecast to cause more heavy rainfall over the weekend. Nine provinces are particularly at risk - Chiang Rai, Phayao, Sukhothai, Lampang, Phetchabun, Phrae, Nan, Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan.
Arisara Lekkham, a lecturer at the School of Law at the Mae Fah Luang University in Chiang Rai, said the floods are more severe than in previous years. "The current flooding in northern Thailand is both an annual occurrence and an extraordinary event this year," she told VOA.
"Key factors include exceptionally heavy and prolonged rainfall, urban expansion blocking natural drainage paths, deforestation and conversion to monoculture agriculture reducing soil water retention, topography of mountainous regions leading to flash floods [and] high-water levels in the Mekong River and its tributaries slowing drainage," she said.
"These factors have resulted in more frequent, intense and long-lasting floods, affecting areas that rarely flood and causing significant damage across multiple provinces. While flooding is expected annually in certain regions, the scale and impact of this year's floods are notably more severe than in typical years," said Lekkham, who has published papers on the legal principles of the Mekong River.
Thai politics have endured a storm of their own recently, with Paetongtarn having become prime minister after a court removed her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Analysts say the heavy floods will be Paetongtarn's first test.
"If we get this kind of rain at this pace, continuously for the month of September, it could be a big crisis for her. But if the rain dissipates and the drier season comes in by the second half of September or early October, then the pressure will be off a bit. It's a matter of nature," political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak told VOA.
In 2011, Thailand suffered some of its worst flooding in recent history because of rain from monsoon season triggered by a tropical storm. The flooding lasted from July to January 2012, killing at least 815 people and affecting over 13 million. Sixty-five of Thailand's 76 provinces were declared disaster zones. The World Bank estimated that the five-month-long floods caused economic damages and losses of over $46.5 billion.
At the time, Thailand was governed by another Shinawatra, then-Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
Yingluck was heavily criticized for the vast damage done by the disaster, but she was not prosecuted following allegations of dereliction of duty in water management by Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Committee.
Thitinan called the current situation reminiscent of the massive flooding that occurred soon after Yingluck took office.
"On Paetongtarn, it's a test of her personal character and personal leadership. We don't know how bad the floods will get. But if it's a lot less [than 2011] ... the floods will incur some damage, but it will not be critical to her premiership," he said.
Lekkham said Paetongtarn and her new Cabinet - announced this week - must manage the current flood problem, providing flood relief assistance and urgent aid, and monitor and warn of the risks nationwide, including in Bangkok.
Long-term measures also must be implemented, she said. "What Paetongtarn and the new government need to do [is] manage the flood problem long-term, support innovation and technology for flood assistance, such as drones for supply delivery or equipment to rescue people stranded in floodwaters, develop systematic, seasonal monitoring and warning plans, ensuring central agencies have a unified view that can be disseminated to local levels, establish flood management as a routine practice, not just a seasonal activity.
"Flood management should become a regular, year-round effort rather than a reactive, seasonal approach," she said.
There have been added concerns that China has been releasing water from its Jinghong Dam in Yunnan into the Mekong River.
"Increased water levels in the Mekong River, partly due to dam releases, are pushing water back into tributaries, worsening flooding in agricultural areas. The dams affect the natural flow of the Mekong, impacting downstream countries like Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia," Lekkham said.
But a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Bangkok denied the dam was the reason for Thailand's worsened flooding, asserting it had not released any water lately.
The Mekong Dam Monitor, an online platform monitoring reservoir levels in the Mekong River, says its satellite data shows no evidence that China's recent water releases were the reason for the Thailand's heavy floods.
But China is still "partly" to blame," Thitinan said.
"I saw the statistics that [show] the Chinese have released less water than last year, but only a little bit less than last year. But that's irrelevant, because the water that has been released is still making the floods worse in Thailand. So, in practical terms, the Chinese are partly responsible for how bad the floods are," he said.
Lekkham said more communication and trust is needed between six riparian countries that are part of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, a framework focusing on joint usage of the Mekong River.
"There is a need to further promote communication on data exchange, particularly regarding water levels behind dams, daily water releases, and advance warnings during wet seasons. Implementing publicly accessible CCTV systems could foster mutual trust between China and lower Mekong countries," she said.
Economically, the floods could cost Thailand up to $176 million in damages, Thailand's Chamber of Commerce has warned. Thailand's agricultural, industrial and services sectors have been the most affected, while the kingdom is already suffering from a sluggish economy.