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KIGALI —Paul Kagame's win in Rwanda's presidential election this week was widely expected, although critics say the vote was neither free nor fair.
Lewis Mudge is the central Africa director at Human Rights Watch. Mudge, who lived in Rwanda for several years, said elections there are a mere performance and always produce big wins for Kagame.
"Notwithstanding the economic progress that President Kagame has made, he's effectively been in power since July of 1994. That progress has not been matched in terms of political and civil rights and that reflects open space for people to have an independent political platform that disagrees with the RPF," he said.
Kagame won over 99% of the vote, according to preliminary results announced on Monday.
Earlier this year, like many analysts, Strathmore University lecturer Edgar Githua predicted the 66-year-old Kagame would win big but had no doubt the size of the victory would be greatly exaggerated.
"Rwanda is the paradox of Africa. Paradox of Africa because the Rwandese themselves are afraid to talk about their own elections. If you have a vote where 98% votes for one candidate, that is a red flag. Nobody is that popular in this world," said Githua.
Kagame, who has held various roles since 1994, won by a similar margin in 2017. At a watch party organized by his ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front, he acknowledged that some people found his margin of victory this year suspicious.
"This is a strange thing, that's why there are many who don't understand it, criticize it, but instead it [votes] continues to increase. It's the uniqueness of RPF and the uniqueness of Rwandans," he said.
Indeed, Kagame's supporters, including Samuel Kwazera, said they would vote for him forever if they could.
"During the genocide in 1994, I was four years old; now it's 30 years until today you can see the progress and you can see democracy going on, I am proud. I wish myself as I love him that he can be forever, and ever," he said.
Mudge said while there are Rwandans who will continue to vote for Kagame, this was not a free and fair election.
"For our point as an organization that defends civil and political rights of people in Rwanda to express themselves, our point is the context is very different if you want to express yourself differently, if you want to criticize government policy. There's simply no space for them to operate," he said.
Kagame faced two opponents - Democratic Green Party Candidate Frank Habineza and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana. Both received less than 1 percent of the vote.
Other candidates, including some of Kagame's most vocal critics, were barred from running for president, including Diane Rwigara.
One of the reasons was that she didn't garner the 600 signatures of support needed in her application.
Mudge said in Rwanda's political climate, Rwigara had no chance to get the signatures or a place on the ballot.
"For people like Rwigara and [Victoire] Ingabire, it's not about this technical aspect of signatures. This is about not allowing compelling, articulate women to run, to take attention, and basically challenging the narrative," he said.
Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, another critic of Kagame who was a presidential candidate in the 2010 elections, was arrested, tried, and jailed on charges of terrorism and threatening national security. She was released eight years later through a presidential pardon.
She said elections in Rwanda have long been predetermined.
"Persistent wins of presidential elections close to 100% is not a sign of popularity but of lack of competition. ... I don't understand why they refuse to allow the most credible challengers to participate against President Kagame in elections in Rwanda. Of course, this is not only in 2024 but it was the case in 2003, 2010 and 2017," she said.
Recently Kagame called her a "genocidaire" and said her life will not end well.
"I was surprised to hear President Kagame talking about me being from a genocidaire family but those are accusations used by the government to intimidate everyone who challenges the Rwandan government," she said.
Analysts acknowledge that Kagame does enjoy real popularity among Rwanda's electorate, mainly for his ability to guide the East African country toward internal stability and economic progress since the 1994 genocide, when an estimated 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed by Hutu extremists.
At the same time, they say, Kagame continues to stifle dissent, as support for the president and his policies is not unanimous.