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WASHINGTON —Myanmar's military junta is going forward with a mandatory draft set to begin in mid-April, but critics say doing so has the potential to negatively impact the economy and the military itself.
The ruling junta, which seized power in a coup three years ago this month, says the objective is to call up about 60,000 young men and women annually for mandatory service.
The military has said the conscription order, known as the People's Military Service Law, is essential given the conflict with rebel groups in the country. Analysts say the junta has struggled to sign up new recruits and is facing its biggest challenges on the battlefield.
The measure dates to 2010 but had not been activated until last week.
According to the 2019 census, at least 13 million men and women are eligible for military service, said Major General Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for the Myanmar junta, in an audio clip released on Wednesday. He said that while the government wants to recruit 60,000 people annually, "We cannot call up more than 50,000 per year," because of budget constraints.
Yet, a written statement released by the junta details a monthly quota of 5,000 conscripted for training this year, with women joining the military starting in September.
The statement also emphasizes that engaging with alternative armed groups to evade the military service law is considered a violation, "subjecting individuals to prosecution under existing legal frameworks."
According to Zaw Min Tun, the initiation of the conscription measure is intended for young people to "understand the responsibility of national defense."
"On February 14th, organizations at the regional level were established to commence the recruitment process," the general said. He said the first group of recruits would be called up in mid-April following the traditional Thingyan New Year celebration.
A desperate measure?
"The Myanmar military currently has fewer than 100,000 troops," Khun Bedu, the chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, or KNDF, said by phone on Friday. "Morale in the military is extremely low, and many soldiers don't want to serve any longer. That is why the junta needs to force young people to join."
The KNDF is one of the most powerful ethnic armed resistance forces in Myanmar. It is fighting the junta in coordination with the National Unity Government, or NUG, a grouping of politicians and regional leaders who were ousted in the 2021 coup. The NUG views itself as a shadow government.
Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military coup.
"It's a desperate measure, and they're resorting to this because they lack soldiers." Miemie Winn Byrd, a former U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and Myanmar-U.S. military relations expert, told VOA via Zoom last week.
"They simply don't have enough," she said. "This has been an ongoing issue, but it escalated since 2021 with the beginning of armed resistance against the military. There has been an unprecedented surge of defections recently, and the numbers of killed-in-action and casualties have been much higher on the military side than the resistance side.
"Additionally," Byrd said, "There have been mass unit-level surrenders; and they have missed their recruitment target every year since 2021, because they are highly unpopular. Our data say that over 90% of the Burmese people reject the military."
The lack of transparency by Myanmar's junta makes it difficult to know the true size of junta forces. It has been estimated by the Washington-based U.S. Institute of Peace that, accounting for casualties, desertions and defections since the military takeover, the effective size of the Myanmar military stands at around 150,000, with less than half being front-line troops.
Escaping conscription
Meanwhile, VOA Burmese reported Monday that two women were killed in a stampede outside a passport office in Mandalay, the second-largest city. The incident unfolded as thousands rushed to leave the country, seeking to evade enforcement of the junta's military service law.
A rescue worker on the scene tells VOA the incident occurred around 2:30 a.m. as people queued to apply for passports.
"There was a hole nearby, and people fell into it, causing their deaths due to a lack of air," he said. "Some people also got injured and were sent to a hospital." He spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing for his safety.
According to a French news agency report on Friday, more than 1,000 people lined up outside the Thai embassy in Yangon, highlighting a surge in individuals seeking to leave Myanmar following the junta's announcement of mandatory military service.
"This law is impossible to accept," a 27-year-old man living in Yangon, speaking anonymously for his protection, said by phone. "There are proper procedures for military conscription," he continued, "But in this case, we can just be arrested on the street and forced to join."
When asked about his plans if unable to comply with military conscription, he said, "We have no choice but to leave; it's extremely frustrating." He said some people will go to liberated areas to avoid conscription, while others are planning to go abroad to work and send money to those who joined the resistance.
Consequences of conscription
"You're going to see a mass exodus of young people, especially those who can afford to leave," Byrd said. "So, then you have a brain drain. A lot of the businesses and other groups are not going to have enough workers or qualified workers," she added.
Byrd also noted that the military likely will use some of the recruits for demining and mine detection purposes, which she said will make the military more unpopular.
The National Unity Government said on Tuesday that the recently activated military service law is illegal and therefore citizens are not obligated to adhere to this law.
"Because the junta seized control through illegal and forceful means, any rules they establish are also illegitimate. So, there's no need to follow their directive," the NUG's presidential office spokesperson, Kyaw Zaw, said last week. "Therefore, the public can resist in different ways. In the past we have used methods of resistance like silent strikes. The NUG and allied revolutionary organizations are prepared to support, protect, and meet the needs of the youth in their resistance against the junta's actions."
Tommy Walker contributed to this report.