Analysts say a right-wing victory may bolster the Catalan independence movement in the north-eastern corner of the country when voters go to the polls in Spain this month.

Several recent polls suggest the opposition conservative People's Party (PP) will get more votes than the ruling Socialists in the election on July 23 but will fall short of a majority so it may have to rely on the support of the hard-right Vox party to form a government.

In 2017, a former PP government ordered hundreds of police to stop a Catalan independence referendum which resulted in clashes between riot officers and voters.

Vox, meanwhile, proposes eradicating regional governments like the one in Catalonia, in a direct challenge to the fiercely proud region.

Meanwhile, the European Union's General Court last week stripped Carles Puigdemont of legal immunity from prosecution as a member of the European Parliament (MEP) for his role as the separatist leader of Catalonia's failed bid for independence nearly six years ago.

The decision could pave the way for Puigdemont, who lives in self-imposed exile in Belgium, to be extradited to Spain to stand trial for disobedience and embezzlement, which carry jail terms of up to eight years.

Boost for separatists

Analysts believe that the prospect of a separatist leader appearing in a Madrid court may boost the Catalan independence movement, which has lost support in recent years.

Puigdemont has vowed to appeal the decision at the European Court of Justice, which could delay any moves by Spain to extradite him.

In 2017, Puigdemont fled Spain to avoid prosecution following a short-lived declaration of independence that prompted Madrid to take direct control of the wealthy region.

In its ruling last week, the Luxembourg-based EU court rejected the appeal filed by Puigdemont and backed the European Parliament's decision to waive his immunity and that of two other self-exiled Catalan separatist MEPs, Toni Comin and Clara Ponsati.

"The Parliament cannot adopt decisions to defend immunity which produce binding legal effects with regard to the Spanish judicial authorities," the court said in a ruling reported by Reuters.

Puigdemont said the three MEPs would appeal to the European Court of Justice.

"We will defend our fundamental rights until the end," he tweeted.

Vox was in the political wilderness until four years ago, but after the Catalonia crisis it experienced a surge in support and is now the third largest party in the Spanish parliament with 52 lawmakers.

Battles over language

In its election manifesto published Friday, Vox called for regional governments to be abolished and Spanish to be promoted over other co-official languages like Catalan, Galician and Basque.

Santiago Abascal, Vox leader, told hundreds of supporters at a rally last week attended by VOA in Barcelona that he would "not cede an inch in defending the right of Spaniards to speak their own language and against linguistic imposition."

The Catalan language is seen by separatists as a symbol of its nationhood. It is the predominant language in which most school subjects are taught in the region. Only 25% of classes in Catalonia are taught in Spanish.

Pere Aragones, the separatist Catalan regional leader, last month called for a "democratic front" against a possible right-wing government.

Catalan independence parties, which have been divided in recent years over the right path to independence, came together to support Puigdemont.

Aragones, a senior figure in the left-wing Catalan Republican Left party, said he hoped European justice would prevail and restore Puigdemont's immunity.

Dolors Feliu, president of the Catalan National Assembly, a pro-independence civic group, told VOA in a statement: "The arrest of President Puigdemont would be a blatant violation of his rights and an attack against Catalonia's pacifist pro-independence ideology."

Pablo Simon, a political analyst at the Carlos III University in Madrid, said Puigdemont's decision to appeal means the prospect of the Catalan leader standing trial is not an immediate one.

"It will have [a] far more immediate effect on the independence movement if the PP and Vox govern together [after the election]. That could provide a boost to the independence movement," Simon told VOA.

On the same day as Puigdemont lost his appeal in Luxembourg last week, a poll found 52% of Catalans opposed independence, according to the Catalan government's Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), while 42% support splitting from Spain.

Since May, when the last survey was published, opposition to independence has risen two percentage points, while support has fallen one point, the survey found.

Since July 2022, support for staying part of Spain has risen by four percentage points, while support for independence has fallen by two points.

In January, Spain's Supreme Court dropped sedition charges against Puigdemont after a reform of the country's penal code abolished the crime.

Supreme Court judge Pablo Llarena said he would submit a new extradition request to Belgian authorities for Puigdemont to face trial on the lesser charges, depending on the EU courts' rulings.

Spain's earlier attempts to extradite Puigdemont from Germany, Belgium and Italy failed.

Some information in this report came from Reuters.

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