BANGKOK —It has been only a few weeks since Thailand's historic elections, which saw opposition parties win a decisive victory, but already questions are being raised about whether the winners will ever have an opportunity to govern the country.

For many Thais, the elections were seen as a gateway into a new political era and an end to several years of instability marked by military rule, civil unrest and economic downturns.

Millions picked the orange-clad Move Forward Party, headed by Pita Limjaroenrat, to lead the next government.

Outpolling all other parties with 151 of the 500 seats of parliament's lower house, the party then formed a coalition with seven other opposition parties, including previous winners Pheu Thai, to reach a total of 312 seats.

But to form a government it must command a majority of seats in the lower house plus the 250-seat Senate, whose members are appointed by the military. The party is still waiting to see whether it will be backed by enough senators to give it the required total of 376 seats.

Napon Jatusripitak is a political scientist at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, a Southeast Asia research group based in Singapore. He said Pita and his Move Forward Party face several challenges in addition to the need for support from the Senate.

These include "ongoing attempts to undermine Pita's eligibility as a prime ministerial candidate via referee institutions [and] an uneasy coalition with the Pheu Thai Party, which stands to gain if Pita is disqualified," Napon said. There is also concern that the proposed coalition could fall apart under the Move Forward Party's leadership.

"These obstacles suggest that the Move Forward Party's path to forming a government will be extremely challenging and uncertain," he told VOA.

Party politics

The Pheu Thai Party was the pre-election favorite but placed second with 141 seats. The party is seen as more appealing to conservatives and military loyalists in the Senate. But deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai recently said abandoning the coalition would be a "last resort."

In May, the Move Forward Party signed a joint memorandum of understanding with its seven partners, outlining a 23-point agenda. Some of the key points included military reforms and an end to conscription.

But missing in the joint agreement is an amendment to Thailand's lese majeste law, which prohibits criticism of the monarchy. The law is outlined in Section 112 of the Thai Criminal Code and carries lengthy prison sentences for violations. Amending it was a major campaign pledge of the Move Forward Party.

The coalition parties have not been able to agree on an amendment. Undeterred, Pita has said he is confident an application for the amendment will be submitted at the appropriate time.

The obstacles Pita and his party are facing "highlight the country's ongoing struggle to move away from a hybrid military regime that is still committed to protecting vested interests in the conservative status quo," said Napon, the political scientist.

Pita probe

Another setback for the Harvard University-educated Pita is that the Election Commission of Thailand has launched an investigation into whether he knew he may have not been eligible to run as an MP in the elections.

Under election rules, a candidate is prohibited from being an owner or shareholder of a media company. Pita, 42, said he had shares in the Independent Television, or iTV, station, which were inherited from his father, but have since been transferred from his ownership.

The issue appears to hinge in party on whether iTV should still be considered a media company after its TV concession was terminated in 2007.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior fellow of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, said the Move Forward Party's chances of leading the next government hang in the balance.

"Thailand's powers that be appear unwilling to let both Pita and Move Forward take power because of their serious reform proposals on the military and monarchy," he told VOA. "When the people's will, as expressed in the May 14 election, is being stymied and subverted like this, the political situation will be unstable with potential turmoil ahead."

In 2020 and 2021, Thailand was rocked with anti-government protests demanding reform of the monarchy, led mainly by youths. Clashes with police were common, with hundreds arrested.

Matthew Wheeler, Southeast Asia senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, an independent organization that monitors conflict worldwide, said Thailand could see demonstrations once more if the election winners are unable to lead a government.

"Street protests are likely; they're a standard part of the repertoire of political action in Thailand," Wheeler told VOA in an email exchange. "How big and protracted protests may be depends in part on which parties end up in government and what penalties are handed down to [Move Forward Party] and its executives."

He added that authorities may prefer to let protests run their course, given their success in containing and outlasting the protests in 2020-21.

Thailand's electoral officials have until July 13 to certify at least 95% of the MP's who were elected and officially announce the results. Until then, it is unlikely the Senate will decide whom to back.

Thailand's new Cabinet is expected to be in place by August, when it will vote for the next prime minister.

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