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WASHINGTON —A visit this week by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Oman and a meeting in Damascus last week with the UAE foreign minister are seen by observers as a new push by some Arab countries to bring an isolated Syrian government back into regional and international politics.
Assad's visit Monday to Oman was his first official trip to the Gulf country in more than a decade. Most Arab countries severed ties with Assad's government in 2011 following its brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters.
But the devastating earthquake that hit parts of Turkey and Syria on February 6 could be an opportunity for the Syrian government to reestablish relations with some countries in the region, analysts say.
In the wake of the earthquake, many Arab countries, particularly wealthy Gulf nations, rushed to provide humanitarian assistance to Syria.
"'Earthquake diplomacy' will likely serve to accelerate the Syrian regime's reintegration into the Arab world's diplomatic fold," said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy.
While some Arab countries such as the UAE and Bahrain have restored ties with the Syrian government in recent years, they have not been able to establish full-fledged relations as the conflict in Syria remains locked in stalemate.
"Regional players like the UAE, Oman, Algeria, which have been opposed to efforts aimed at isolating Damascus will make the argument that easing such isolation is necessary for addressing the humanitarian crises that Syrians are suffering in the aftermath of this horrific disaster," Cafiero told VOA.
He added that Assad's visit to Oman, and last year to UAE, would make it less controversial for other Arab governments to host the Syrian leader.
"Assad's regime will achieve major breakthroughs when Saudi Arabia renormalizes relations with Syria, and Damascus returns to the Arab League," Cafiero said. "Both of those developments will possibly, perhaps likely, occur in 2023."
Saudi Arabia, a major power in the Middle East, has opposed the Syrian government throughout the country's civil war, particularly for its close alliance with Saudi's regional archrival Iran.
But over the weekend, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said the Arab world was looking for a new approach to Syria to respond effectively to that country's humanitarian crises, including the recent earthquake.
"The status quo is not working," bin Farhan told the Munich Security Conference. "We need to find some other approach."
"What that approach is, is still being formulated," he added.
Seth Frantzman, director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis, said Syria's outreach to the Gulf is particularly important for accessing potential financial support to rebuild Syria in the wake of the war and earthquake.
"The Gulf states, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have already played a key role in supporting Egypt economically," he told VOA. "Support for Syria will ostensibly come with a view that Damascus should reorient itself to integration with the Arab states, including Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf."
But Frantzman said Gulf states' outreach to Damascus would not achieve immediate political outcomes because of Syria's close ties with Iran.
"Iran wants to use Syria as a launchpad for attacks on Israel, hollowing out Syria and moving its proxies into the power vacuum," he said.
US stance
In Washington, U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed their opposition to rapprochements between some countries and Syria, arguing that the time has not yet come to normalize relations with Damascus.
"The only context in which we would encourage normalization or improvement of relations would be were the Assad regime to fulfill the political guidelines, the political roadmap that has been spelled out in the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254," State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a press briefing last week.
Resolution 2254, adopted in 2015, aims at ending the Syrian conflict by pursuing a political transition.
But analyst Cafiero said he didn't expect U.S. officials in Washington to do much beyond responding with rhetoric if Syria continues reintegrating into the region's diplomatic fold.
"As the war in Ukraine rages on, U.S.-China tensions remain hot, and the Iranian nuclear program continues advancing, the Biden administration has its priorities and reversing the Arab trend toward renormalizing relations with Assad is very low on the list," he said.
This story originated in VOA's Kurdish Service.